Method description

Definitions and notation

Definitions

  • attributes - variables,
  • levels - subdivisions of the set of values of a variable used in the scoring card; in the case of categorical variables levels mean different values of an attribute (also called categories), in the case of numerical variables levels mean intervals.

Notation

  • - the number of attributes,

  • - the attributes, ,

  • - the number of levels for the attribute ,

  • - the number of a level for the attribute , .

The first step in building scoring card is to determine levels for attributes. For every attribute the algorithm sets -- the number of levels. If an attribute is categorical the number of levels equals the number of different values (different categories). For numerical attributes the algorithm selects intervals.

In both cases two extra levels ('No Answer' and 'No information') are added by defaul:

  • The No Answer level means that customer deliberately didn't provide an answer. This category adds an additional source of information about the customer's behavior. Is it assumed that purposeful hiding of information by the customer is equivalent to the least-profitable answer for him.
  • The No Information level- means lack of data due to factors other than purposeful non-disclosure of information on the part of the customer, such as database system errors. This category doesn't provide any additional information and is treated as a missing value or an error.

In the case when any of the two additional levels is not necessary, it can be deleted manually.

Figure 40.2. Elements of a scoring card in Advanced Miner

Elements of a scoring card in Advanced Miner

Algorithm details

In the process of building a scoring card, the algorithm calculates the number of points for every level of every attribute. Two algorithms for calculating points are available: Max Points Scaling and PDO Scaling. Moreover, additional scoring card characteristics, the BeingGood and Weight of Evidence parameters are also caluclated.

Max Points Scaling algorithm

The main component of the formula for calculating the points for the -th level of attribute is the contribution coefficient . These coefficients are calculated differently for categorical and numerical attributes.

Calculation of contribution for categorical attributes

Priot to the calculation, every categorical attribute is binarized into binary variables. Let denote the coefficient obtained from the logistic regression model for the variable (obtained from binarization) corresponding to the -th level of the attribute .

The contribution coefficient for the -th level of the categorical attribute is calculated as:

Additionally, for the No Information level

where

  • is the number of records in the training dataset for which the value of the attribute belongs to the -th level,
  • is the number of records in the training dataset for which the value of the attribute is specified (i.e. non-missing).

Calculation of contribution for numerical attributes

Let denote the average value of the attribute in the training dataset, and the average value of the -th level of the attribute . In the case when the level is empty (i.e. no values fall into it), we put

where and denotes the ends of the interval which forms the -th level. When the level is empty and one of the ends of the corresponding interval is equal to , the value of is set to the othe end of the interval.

Let denote the coefficient obtained from the logistic regression model for the attribute .

The contribution coefficient for the -th level of the attribute is calculated as

and

Note

The formula for the contribution of the No Information level of a numerical variable is, in fact, similar, to the one for categorical variables. It can be shown that:

Calculation of points

For the standard levels and the No Information level the algorithm first calculates the non-normalized points and later uses the non-normalized points for all levels of a given attribute to calculate the normalized points for each level. Below we assume that corresponds to the No Information level of the attribute .

For the level of the attribute the non-normalized points ( ) are calculated according to the formula

where

is an input parameter equal to the number of points assigned to the strongest attribute, if the SwapPoints paramter of the algorithm settings is set to true, and if the SwapPoints> paramter is set to false.

The normalized points for any level with the exception of No Answer level are calculated according to the formula

For the No Answer level the following formula is used

if the Maximum for NoAnswer paramater of the algorithm settings is set to true, and

if the Maximum for NoAnswer paramater is set to false.

PDO Scaling

The PDO (Points to Double the Odds) Scaling algorithm depends on three parameters: odds, atPoints and PDO. The points for various levels are calculated so that the score of atPoints corresponds to the odds (of obtaining a positive target value) of odds : 1 and these odds double with every increase of the total score by PDO points.

Calculation of contribution for categorical attributes

Priot to the calculation, every categorical attribute is binarized into binary variables. Let denote the coefficient obtained from the logistic regression model for the variable (obtained from binarization) corresponding to the -th level of the attribute .

The contribution coefficient for the -th level of the categorical attribute (other than NoInformation and NoAnswer) is calculated as:

where is the Weight of Evidence parameter. Additionally

Calculation of contribution for numerical attributes

For a given attribute let denote the coefficient obtained from logistic regression. For any level , of this attribute which is other then the NoInformation and NoAnswer the contribution is calculated according to the formula

where is the Weight of Evidence parameter. The contribution for the NoInformation level is calculated as

Calculation of points

Let denote the number of attributes. Prior to point assignment the following quantities are calculated:

The the points for the attribute and its level (other than NoAnswer) are calculated as

where is the intercept term obtained from from logistic regression and if the SwapPoints> paramter is set to false.

For the No Answer level the following formula is used

if the Maximum for NoAnswer paramater of the algorithm settings is set to true, and

if the Maximum for NoAnswer paramater is set to false.

Computation of other scoring card statistics

The BeingGood statistic is calculated for every level of every attribute according to the following formula:

where

  • is the number of records in the training dataset for which the value of the attribute belongs to the -th level and is not the positive target value.
  • is the number of records in the training dataset for which the value of the attribute belongs to the -th level and is the positive target value.
  • is the total number of records in the training dataset for which the value of the attribute is not the positive target value.
  • is the total number of records in the training dataset for which the value of the attribute is the positive target value.

The Weight of Evidence parameter is calculated for every level of every attribute according to the formula